دانلود مقالات

“A Survey on Bubble Prices of House Market in Kurdistan
province”

116
Abstract
The Price of housing has an important role in household and the government
decision making. This is more visible, especially in recent years that housing
prices have been increasing trend. The increasing prices, if which rooted in basic
economic conditions or if only due to bubbles, can lead to different decisions and
policies. This survey studies the price bubble in the housing market of provinces,
such Kurdistan, Kermanshah and Ilam and beside this point of view, also purposed
to study the relationship of housing price with GDP, stock quotes, prices of gold,
paid bank facilities and housing inflation rate. For evaluating the bubble price in
the housing market, housing-demand function method has been used. Housing
demand function is considered as a function of economic variables and dibasic
factors (which are not visible) and which dibasic factors as the whole appear in
error and is used as an index for the housing price bubble size. For estimating
template, the Tablvyy-data during of 1376 -86 is used in these three provinces;
Kurdistan, Kermanshah and Ilam.The results of the estimation error sentences of
housing demand function, implies that the existence of a price bubble is in parallel
with increasing growth rate for mild in these three provinces during 1376-86. The
results of pattern related to housing price with economic variables indicate that
housing prices in the 5 percent significance-level has a positive relationship with
payment facilities Housing Bank and inflation, and with gold prices has a negative
relationship. The results also obtained from the estimation of the model, show that
housing price in the significant-level of 5 percent with GDP and stock prices
doesn’t have any significant relationship.
Keywords: bubble price, housing price, housing-demand, Tablvyy data

منابع لاتین
1.Asako, Kazumi, Kanou Satoru and Sano Naofumi, (1990), Stock
price and bubbles (in Japanese: Kuuka to bubble), in Nihon no and
Kabuki Chica (eds.) Japanese Stock and Land Prices.
2.Broekstra G., Sornette D., Zhou Wei-Xing, 2005, “Bubble, critical
zone and crash of Royal Ahold”, Physica A. 346, 529-560
3.Baltagi, B. H., 1995,“Econometric Analysis of Panel Data”, John
Wiley & Sons Inc., New York, USA
4.Black, A. and P. Fraser, 2006. House prices, Fundamentals and
Bubbles. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting.
5.Black, A., Fraser, P. and M. Hoesli, 2005. House prices,
Fundamentals and Inflation Jack Johnston & Jhon Dinardo ,
Econometric Metode , Fourth Edition , New york , the Mc Graw-Hill
companies , Inc , 1995.
6.Blanchard, O.J. and M.W. Watson, 1982. Bubbles, rational
expectations and financial markets. In: Wachtel, P(Ed.), Crises in the
Economic and Financial structure. Lexington BookS, Lexington, MA
7.Campbell, I.Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1988), “Stock prices, earnings and
expected dividends”, Journal of Finance, 43(3), 661-676.
8.Campbell, I.Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1987), “Cointegration and tests of
present value models” Journal of Political Economy, 5, 1062,-1088.
9.Craine, R., (1993) “Rational bubbles: A test”, Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control 17, 829-846.
10.Charles Kindleberger, 1987. Bubbles, The New Palgrave: A
Dictionary of Economics, John.
11. Diba, Behzad and Herschel Grossman, (1987), “On the Inception
of Rational Bubbles, “Quarterly Joumal of Economics, 87, (august)
pp.697-700.
12 Diba, Behzad and Herschel Grossman, (1988a).”The Theory of
Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices, “The Economic Journal, 98.
(September), pp-746-54.
13. Diba, B.T., Grossman, H.I., (1988), “Explosive rational bubbles in
stock prices?” American Economic Review 78, 520-530.
14. Doornik, J.A., Ooms, M., 2001, A.12. Package 1.01 for
Estimating, Forecasting and Simulating Arfime Models: Arfima
Package 1.01 for Ox. Mimeo.
15. Drill J., Sola M., 1998, “Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching”,
Journal of Monetary Economics 42, 357-373.
16. Evans, George, (1991), “Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles
in Assef Prices, “American Economic Review, 31, (September),
pp.922-30.
17. Hsiao, C., 1986,“ Analysis of Panel Data”, New York, Cambridge
University Press
18. Kirman Alan, Teyssie Gilles, 2005, “Testing for bubbles and
Chang-points”, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 29, 765-
799.
19.Levin, E. J., and R. E. Wright, 1997. The impact of speculation on
house prices In the United Kingdom, Economic Modelling 14, 567-
585.
20. Roche, Muorice J., 2000. The rise in house prices in Dublin:
bubble, fad or just Fundamentals, Economic Modelling
21. Smith, M.H. and G. Smith, 2007, Bubble, bubble, where’s the
housing bubble?
22. Stiglitz, J.E. and S.J. Grossman, 1980, On the impossibility of
informationally efficient markets, American economic Rewiew, Jun 70
(3):393-407.
23. Shiller, R.J. and K.E. Case, 2003. Is there a bubble in the housing
market? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 299–362.